LMFAO

Another one of these things!

"oh no! It's Communist China!"

"Oh no! China's economy is growing so fast!"

"Oh No! China has 4x as many people as we do!"

Let me share a few things with you, that are MY opinion on the Superpower "issue"

For one: Why are you concerned with China? Why aren't you worried about India, the economy and population of which is growing far faster than China, and in fact, India's set to surpass China in the next couple decades or so, due to China's aging workforce (the whole "only two kids" law and the "only  have boys" tradition have really impacted China's population growth, 120 boys to every 100 girls, or so).  I'll tell you why, because you, like the bulk of people, eat up what the media feeds you. Americans LOOVE competition, to the point of being unhealthy at times, and since the USSR collapsed, the PRC has always been on our "OMFG LOOK OUT" list.  We don't care about the Capitalist Russia, or the E.U. because we're moderatly friendly with them, the same goes for India. Of all the potential superpowers, China is the only one we've ever truly warred against in earnest.

For two: Another thing people obsess over is the HUGE amount of our debt that China owns. Well, it's time for math class, folks.  Wanna know why the dollar has been declining? Well, this'll help you figure it out.  Slowly, but surely, the United States has shifted from a creditor nation to and in debt nation.  And as the debt rises, the value of the dollar declines in turn.  So, if we were to do some math, we'd realize that, once translated, the amount of our debt that China owned 30 or so years ago is just a tiny bit smaller than what we owe them today.  The only real loss here is that the Dollar has lost significant value over the years.

For Three: Oil.  "OMFG Oil is so expensive" Hey, guess what? NO IT'S NOT. Linking back to the above statement, you do the math and Oil was at it's most expensive around 1918, at I think close to $4 per gallon in today's money, which was mere quarters and nickels back then.  Now, yes the price of oil will continue to increase, but honestly, who do you think will get over oil first, America, who is at least trying to break it's addiction, or China, who is fueling it's addiction? In the long run, China will pay for it's current fast-paced development. All third world countries will.

Fourthly: Military Issues.  Not even going to bother with this, the PRC has the world's largest army, the USA has the world's largest Navy and Air Force, if they went to war the PRC would lose not militarily, but because of the political and racial unrest there would probably break apart from lack of resources from the USA.  Remember, the USA DOES export goods, mostly to countries that we import them from.

Fifth: What about other countries?  The EU already makes more money than the USA per year by about 1 trillion.  Take into account that the EU has about 2x as many people as the USA, and this is laughable, but that the media is hyperventilating to China's economy, which is 1/2 as large as ours, when they have 4x as many people, that's rediculous. Why doesn't the media warn us about the ever growing EU? Or India? Or Brazil, which is "threatening" to become the second superpower in the Western Hemisphere? Because nobody feels THREATENED by some friendly Europeans, cranky Russians, hard working Indians and blossoming Brazilians, they only feel "threatened" by China's large population, military and historical grievances with us.

Sixth: In order to answer your question, we can't really tell at this time. Albeit that the USA was the world's first true "Hyperpower" (That is, a Superpower with unrivaled control of the world, from 1991 to about 2005 when people started noticing China) can say something.  American Spirit, for lack of a better word, is also to feel on top, to be on top, but to always think that we're losing.  America is a country of pessimists, we always think we could be doing better, that the results could have been higher, the cars faster, the women hotter, the people skinnier, the economy better, the military better equiped the space program galaxies ahead of anyone else's, and when we feel competition, these feelings get more intense, and we try harder to prevent failure... in our minds.  Second place is as good as last for most Americans, and first is never enough.

That's my opinion on the matter.

Xer0 \^/

China is a greater concern than India because China is not democratic and has more military power...India may become a greater economic power than China, but it does not pose the same military threat that China does...it's not media hype, it's simply the truth...America is more likely to run into a political showdown or armed conflict with China than with India or the EU...I'm not saying that situation is likely, but its more likely with China than with India...

This is a concern for the same reason that oil independence is: national security.  Even though trading with OPEC nations for oil is the best thing economically, many argue it leaves us vulnerable should some war somewhere break out...likewise, if something bad went down, that China owns much of our debt is a great risk...

I agree with you on this...there is too much hype on "china owning all our debt OMG!!"....however, people are concerned because it means America is dependent on another nation...that doesn't go over real well with Americans....it shouldn't be a concern to Americans, but it is...

From a purely mathematical standpoint, you are correct...but this is irrelevant, as the fear of expensive oil is laid in future, not current prices...even though the US is the 3rd largest producer of oil, it ranks 12th in proven reserves...as time goes on, the US will be able to produce less and less oil on its own, and will become more dependent on foreign oil...in the past, America was able to produce most of its oil, but now it is having to import more and more, therefore making it vulnerable to decisions by OPEC and prices set by foreign nations...in addition, third world nations will increase the demand of oil in the near future, so there are many reasons to indicate that prices will increase and reach a historical high in the near future...

From a purely economic standpoint, both nations are highly dependent on each other's trade, but both nations also have lots of natural resources and could grow their own food...therefore, China and the US would both be crippled economically by war, not just China...both nations, however, could still carry on, so if it came to war, military power would be the deciding factor, not just economics...

The PRC technically has the largest military, but its large margin is due to the size of paramilitary forces...statistics and numbers can be misleading, as technically many nations have larger militaries (Iran, North Korea, Brazil, India, Russia) than the US...however, many of these nations "buff" their figures with paramilitary...the Chinese army is still larger than the US, but not by as much as some estimates may indicate...

Last I heard, China had the largest air force (# of aircraft) though the US was very close and I wouldn't be surprised if America overtook them recently...America does have the largest navy in the world, a huge advantage...

If it came to war, I'd say America has a huge advantage...with American naval superiority there is no chance in hell the Chinese would be able to land troops on the mainland (they might make it to Alaska)...the American Air Force would fair better than the Chinese, but I don't think America would clearly dominate the skies...as for land forces, America is going to have an advantage, but not enough to probably win without going into a war of attrition...given the population density of China and how close that population is to the Pacific coast, I'd say that China would be in a much worse position than the US, especially with the US having a better air force/navy and having naval bases all over the pacific...of course, when nukes come into play, the US has a clear advantage both geographically for defense and with raw firepower....the US also has a high proportion of its civilian population armed, and doesn't have qualms about arming its citizens...China is going to need more than 1 billion people if it seriously tried to take the American mainland...

The EU is far less productive per person than the US (GDP per capita)...America has more natural resources (coal, minerals and metals) and more agriculture per person than the EU...on top of all that, America has a higher population growth rate...in a few years the demographic shift is going to put a lot of people out of the workforce in pretty much all western nations....but this shift is going to hit western Europe harder than it will hit the US...if you were to evaluate the economic threats to the US, the EU would not top the list, and probably would not even be in the top 5...

I do agree with you that the economies of India and Brazil are likely to be as if not more successful than China in the coming decades...however, the way that China handles its economy is different than free market nations...current statistics can be misleading, because if China were to suddenly become closer to a free market, its current economic potential could be heavily underestimated...I think the concern with China is that it posses a military threat, and strong militaries require strong economies to back them up...India and Brazil aren't military threats and have no interest in being a military power on the scale of China...

A very good statement, and a very true one...when the Soviet Union fell the Russian people had to go through the same situation, and right now Russia is re-militarizing and building its economy...the cold war is proof that if America starts to fall behind, it will take measures to regain its place...if nothing else, this attitude will definitely keep America a world leader for decades...

Fallout reference?

Anyway, good points from Xer0 (come back to the Chatroom dammit!) about oil and whatnot.

I'd say, as before, that the only dangerous thing (in my opinion) is if America collapses due to internal pressure, and there'd have been plenty of warning signs if that was happening. There is a very real chance that they'd take the world economy with them, and China would suffer the most (probably). Anyway, the only nation I realistically see the West (and possibly Russia) fighting in a proper war is either North Korea (again) or Iran (and that one would mainly be cruise missiles blowing up nuclear missile launch sites, seeing as that would probably be why we were fighting them.)

Since when does the type of government mean your more likely to go to war.  there are actually monarchy governments out there that are more peaceful than America is.  Hell China hasn't tried to expand its borders for over a thousand years.   Also India might have a smaller army now but they do have nukes.

Yes India has nukes...so does France...are we going to go to war with France anytime soon?  I don't think so...having nukes doesn't make you a military threat (unless your leader is insane ie Kim Jon'Il) because you have only one option, the nuclear option, and going that routes means you lose too...conventional forces however do allow you to expand your power...Somalia, Bosnia, Iraq, Afghanistan...these conflicts are all examples of nuclear powers not using nukes but using conventional forces to project their will and power...China has the type of military that can project power and represent a conventional threat, India simply does not...

Government type does matter...yes there are monarchy governments out there, and yes, they are more peaceful than America is, mainly because they don't have a choice but to be peaceful...the only monarchy with any potent military power is North Korea, and calling North Korea a monarchy is very debatable...China has a government without civilian oversight...it's leaders can do whatever the hell they want to, and there's nothing the people can do about it short of full revolt....Iran is in a similar situation, the theocracy controls everything...even though the president is elected, the candidates are screened by the theocracy and even then, its the Supreme Leader or the Guardian Council calling the shots...even Russia's democracy is under question...for the election that Medvedev ran in, Putin "asked for" a 70% voter turnout and 70% vote for Medvedev...his "predictions" were off by less than one percent...coincidence?  I think not....

Government type does matter...its not just the "official" government type you could look up in the encyclopedia, it's the culture surrounding the government...China, Iran, and Russia are threats because the actions by their governments highly reflect the will of one person and can be unpredictable...if 60% of Americans vote for a President that swears to bomb any missile silo in Iran, it's pretty certain where America stands...if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he's going to wipe Israel off the map, well, he might want to, but its is very difficult to tell if he'll actually do it or not...totalitarian governments with military power are threats because it's hard to predict what they'll do...they are unknown quantities, and therefore are treated as threats even if they turn out to be otherwise....

After I finished typing that, it was so tempting to go back and add "or newly annexed Canada"....

Yeah, that's why Iran getting nukes scares the shit out of many countries, because you don't know whether I'm-a-dinner-jacket is mad enough to use it.

It's amazing how the answer to something is usually right under your nose--in this case, the answer about China is right IN the game Sins of a Solar Empire!

Those of you who have gone after the "civilian research" achievements in Sins should already know where I'm heading. There are three achievements you can earn in Sins, gained by researching ONLY civilian technology and NO military technology at all--and anybody who has tried to win a game this way knows it's a royal pain.

Anyway, out here in the real world, China's military technology sucks. They're basically trying to win a Sins game using ONLY cobalt light cruisers and capital ships. What's going to happen is, in the event of an actual fight between China and.....pretty much anybody, China will end up getting raped by an American LRF swarm or carrier mob.

The quality of the Chinese military may be inferior to say, Israel or the US or Russia...but its good enough to hold the line, and still better than most nations...the issue isn't the current state of its military quality, but the future...there is a significant gap, but China is closing in on the US...

By the way, cheers for using a Sins analogy

Now that is a controversial statement.

If I may point this out to the bulk of you, this is not a

"What if China and America were in a 21st Century Cold War?" Thread. This is a

"Will America Always be a Superpower" Thread. Now;

Seleucia:

1. Yes, and the only things we have to base on Chinese aggression is cultural differences, competitive fear, and past grievances, something we can fairly say about Brazil and India.  Hell, same thing happened in 1989, people thought the world would go Tripolar, Japan's economy was expanding so rapidly that it had surpassed the USSR and rivaled the USA, but people didn't take into account that the USA paid for ALL of Japan's military expenses, and once their economy shrunk that whole mess subsided.  Now, we may not pay for all of China's military, or anything of the sort, but other than that the situation is roughly the same.

2. If people want to live in a nation that is NOT dependent upon other nations, move to Brazil or go back in time about 160 years. Or more.  International involvements is (Much to George Washington's grief) a defining factor in what America is.  Yes, I agree, many people are afraid that other countries are "buying out" America, but often this fear is really nothing at all, if they were truly afraid of such circumstances, they'd set up a budget and lifestyle to reduce the debt; yet no *recent* President has tried to control the debt, hell, Obama still has 1 Trillion of his stimulus bill that I can't find... (Not gonna get into that helluva mess, though)

3. You completely avoided my questions: Which will become Oil-Free first? The USA or PRC?  I vote for the USA, and I also say that once America and the EU stop buying OPEC, South American and Central African oil, the economies of these countries will probably collapse, along with Chinese, Brazilian, Russian and Indian economies, if they have yet to make the switch as well.  No offense to any Muslims, but IMO, once America is done with the oil in those countries, that part of the world will just be known as "In between Europe and Asia where nobody cares what happens" again.

4. All I got out of this was "Blah blah blah, it's about even, but the US has the advantage in technology and naval power, blah blah fallout 3 references, further blah"   Yahoo! Answers, m8, heard it all before. No offense to you.  Now, China does NOT have, contrary to popular belief, enough agricultural resources to supply itself with enough food.  Given American Naval supremacy, it would also run out of oil and other goods in a matter of a few months.  Imagine an EMP going off over China, save the power outages on everything, and that's essentially what it would be like. Desertification is a MAJOR issue in inland China, entire cities have been wiped out by the Mongolian and other, smaller deserts due to over irrigation and overplanting.  Remember the Dustbowl? This is about 3x WORSE than that, and growing.  Tokyo actually had to shut down for a few days, because so much Chinese DUST blew out the good 150 miles or so to Tokyo and just filled the sky.  The lack of food, and resources, along with overall weakness would probably also get the RoC to act and start taking over, and freeing, Southeastern and Central China, then MAYBE what's left of the PRC would surrender to American/RoC forces. 

5. A-hem. You, uh, forgot Russia in your little speech about lack of military power in other potential superpowers...  which just further exemplefies my point: China is only considered a US rival because it alone is playing on BOTH sides of the card: Military and Economic. However, if I may reference an older quote of mine, "German and Japanese cars on American streets is more frightening to me than any Soviet missile".  In essence, this means that America can fight, and win, any military conflict if it needs, to thanks to it large economy and red-blooded population. HOWEVER, America cannot bomb it's economic competitors into submission.

6. I'm glad you liked my statement.   

Snipe (I'll think about it): Ever seen 2012? There's a reason America was the first country to go.  If any other country in the world is ever in trouble, the American Navy is there in under 3 days with food, water and a military presence to prevent any gangs or dictators from using the chaos to their advantage.  THAT's why when it all HAS to go down, the USA has to go down first.  Rather like our British parents, we live and strive on our Naval power, but if a Navy has no home port, it'll eventually fall as well.  If America were to collapse, or be held under foreign occupation, the not even the occupier would benefit, as Americans wouldn't accept anyhting but Stars and Stripes above their heads. If the country just plain went down and out, I'll list, respectively, which countries would fall after it.

1. China/India
2. Indoneisa/Northern Africa
3. Japan/Southern Africa
4. Australia/Canada
5. Eastern Europe
6. Middle Eastern Nations
7. Germany
8. Western Europe/Central Europe
9. Latin American Nations

In the beginning of a Post-American world, the Remaining American Nations would flourish as a result of their agricultural productions, but that's about it. Middle Eastern nations would have to lower oil prices in order to attract more buyers, so their economies would boost, then crash as larger nations stopped buying and attempted to buy out food from the Latin American nations.  Who knows, at the end of the world as we know it, the two superpowers could be Brazil and Mexico.

The Nuke Issue: No country is going to nuke another country. EVER.  Nukes became obselete when Russia dropped it's first A-Bomb. 

Xer0 \^/

I've ran a couple of simulations and your theory of these countries falling does not hold true. I factored in both if the USA land is "livable" or not and it doesn't matter, the rest of the world gets by. It was tricky to include the effect of Hollywood disappearing but the combination of a Dual Core processor with an extra gig of ram carried the simulation through.

I don't think you can compare Japan to China...as you have mentioned, Japan does not have a military or defense budget--China does--if we wanted to send a cruise missile over to North Korea, Japan is not going to do anything to stop us, but China can...if we wanted to send troops to Myanmar, China might not be too happy about us operating in their sphere of influence...would China use its military to stop us?  Maybe, maybe not....but, it could, which makes China uniquely different from the other growing economies (mainly India and Brazil)...I do think that Americans tend to exaggerate on the threat China represents, but it's a threat all the same, and right now it is the greatest conventional threat to America...unlike economies which change rapidly due to many forces, military power is reflected more in nation's policy...the Chinese (or Japanese) economy may flounder in a few years, but its military will still be there...

Believe me, I ain't trying to justify the beliefs of many Americans...but they are what they are...even if economic interdependence is what's best for America (and I very much believe it is), there are large movements to make America independent...yes, they're half-hearted and not well thought out, but the real problem is that Americans hate/fear the mid-east/OPEC/China/Russia/dragons and other un-American things enough to sacrifice a better economy for the sole sake of independence...that is a scary mindset, because those same people vote for the American president, who happens to control the most powerful military the world has ever seen....

Americans?  Changing lifestyles?  Reducing the debt?   

In all seriousness, yes, you are correct...but that would just be un-American...

I suppose I did...yes, the USA will clearly become oil-free first...but I doubt that is going to be happening anytime soon...political decisions, for better or worse, often have a short-term outlook...and in the short-term, both the US and China are going to have to be buying oil...the more oil China and the rest of the world buys, the higher oil prices will be for Americans, and the more wealth that will be flowing into the mid-east and Russia...

The point I was trying to make here is that I think people tend to underestimate the chances China would have...

Economically speaking, both nations have lots of resources and could survive (survive, not live comfortably) if they were entirely cut off from all global trade...

As for food, both china and the US do produce enough to survive on their own...China is not as productive per farmer as the US, but it still produces enough food on its own to survive as a nation...yes, people in China would die from starvation, but the nation would still be able to fight...

The US imports about 3/5 of its oil consumption while China imports just over 1/2 of its consumption...China would actually be in better shape than the US were it to lose its oil imports...sure, the US navy might be good at blockading China, but, it would only be able to block imports from the Pacific ocean...there is A LOT of both food and oil in Central Asia that China could import...last I heard, China has a pipeline running all the way to the Caspian Sea...

The real issue is, who would be willing to trade with America and China should the nations go to war...China can import food and oil over land, and in order to cut off that supply, America would be forced to risk attacking in Russia's sphere of influence...it would be hard to say, but its likely the oil producing nations would stay out of the war entirely or play both sides...in which case, it would be a lot harder to cut China entirely off from oil since it imports both by land and sea...pipelines are easy to bomb but are more likely to turn third parties against the US--a simple naval blockade is not quite as "unfriendly"...

America has a technological advantage, but the point I'm trying to make is that even though the odds are in favor of the US, I don't think it would just dominate China...it would be a close fight, the US would just come out with less bruises...

Russia is both an economic and military power, so China is not alone...however, Russia's economy is based on natural resources (mainly oil, natural gas, and timber) while china is based on manufacturing and agriculture...Chinese industry (in terms of productivity) rivals that of America--Russia's does not...Russia is not like India and Brazil because it DOES have a military...however, it does not have the industry that China does, so its military potential is somewhat hampered...the thing with Russia is that the USSR fell--the PRC has not...Americans see China as a greater threat because it is a newer threat...

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying, but if you are saying Russia isn't playing both the military and economic cards, I don't know if I could go with that...if Russia is lacking in one of those areas, it would be economy, not military, so I don't think it can be compared to India/Brazil...

Great quote ... cheers for that one

And for clarification, I never intended to reference fallout...I was actually thinking of the Japanese landing on the Aleutian islands...but fallout 3 sounds much better

PRC is more likely because it is a developing nation. The US has to tear up existing infrastructure and replace it, but China being a developing country does not need to do this on such an extent.

You obviously know nothing about Chinese military technology.

To those interested in Chinese naval capability heres some food for thought. The US navy is also very worried about the VA-111 Shkval supercavitating rocket torpedo developed by Russia and available to China and Iran because there is no defence against this weapon.

India has already developed the HAL Tejas which rivals the F/A-22 Raptor. India has developed its own attack helicopters and has a sophisticated army to deal with Pakistan and China.